St. Thomas is in exceptional drought as OCR works on the island's first cultivation certificates

October 9, 2026. St. Thomas is in exceptional drought, the most severe category the US Drought Monitor uses. It is the only island in the territory at that reading. It is also the island where the Office of Cannabis Regulation said two weeks ago it was working on the next commercial cultivation Certificates to Operate.

The National Integrated Drought Information System published the finding on October 8, in a status update written with the National Weather Service, the US Department of Agriculture, the University of the Virgin Islands, and the territorial Department of Planning and Natural Resources. The classifications track the Drought Monitor map valid October 6:

• St. Thomas: D4, exceptional drought.
• St. Croix: D3, extreme drought.
• St. John: D3, extreme drought.

St. Thomas crossed into D4 in late September, per the Virgin Islands Consortium, and the St. John Source reported the move on September 25. In July, all three islands sat at D3.

What the report records on the farms

The numbers in the October 8 update are operating costs, not projections. The Bordeaux weather station measured 1.89 inches of rain across the summer months, less than 20 percent of normal. Agricultural ponds across the territory hold what the report describes as none to negligible water, and St. John’s ponds are mostly dry. Producers are paying roughly $450 for a 5,000 gallon water delivery. Feed stores are selling hay at $30 to $35 a bale, and the Virgin Islands Department of Agriculture cannot offer baling services in the St. Thomas and St. John district because of machinery shortages.

Livestock and poultry losses are reported across all three islands. The Consortium adds smaller avocados and dying coconut and banana trees. The report also logs a Mediterranean fruit fly outbreak on St. Croix that triggered the first federal agricultural quarantine in the Virgin Islands.

The licensing sequence runs through the same months

Commercial cultivation began on St. Croix on September 24, when OCR issued the territory’s first Certificate to Operate to a Tier 1 grower. Executive Director Joanne Moorehead told the Cannabis Advisory Board that day that the office was also working with “a couple folks in St. Thomas” on theirs. She also said the St. Croix testing laboratory was ready: “The lab is up. They’re waiting on plants to test.”

Cannabis cannot be transported between islands under the Virgin Islands Cannabis Use Act. Each island’s dispensaries can sell only what is grown on that island. So St. Thomas retail supply depends on St. Thomas cultivation, and St. Thomas is the island at D4.

St. Thomas operators are still applying. The second application round that closed September 15 drew four micro-cultivation permit applications and three commercial cultivation applications from St. Thomas, per the slide OCR presented on September 24. Those applicants are planning grows against the water conditions above.

Of the 14 first-round conditional cultivation licenses, eight went to St. Croix operators. OCR’s September approved applicant list added two more St. Croix cultivation approvals, Crucian Farms and Sunkissed Genetics. The territory’s cultivation capacity is concentrated on the island that is one drought category better off, and that island cannot ship to the other two.

The forecast does not break inside the year

Seasonal models in the October 8 update give a 50 to 60 percent chance of below-normal rainfall and better than a 70 percent chance of above-normal temperatures through early winter. Forecasters put the odds of a very strong El Nino event at 90 percent for the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026 and 2027. Drought is expected to persist across the Virgin Islands through December 31.

That window covers the end-of-year period OCR has pointed to for the first dispensary openings. NIDIS issues these updates roughly every two months, which puts the next one in December.

The federal relief question is still unanswered

USDA designated all three islands primary natural disaster areas for drought on August 20. Eligible farm operators have eight months from that date to apply for Farm Service Agency emergency loans, a deadline of April 20, 2027.

Whether a cannabis cultivation licensee is an eligible farm operator remains unstated. USDA’s published guidance on cannabis eligibility addresses hemp only, and it conditions that on a license issued under an approved federal, state, or tribal plan. Emergency loans are not on the hemp program list. Marijuana is still federally controlled. No federal or territorial agency had published an answer for Virgin Islands licensees as of October 9, and OCR’s site carries no water guidance for cultivation licensees.

What to watch

• October 22. The next Cannabis Advisory Board meeting, where the full intoxicating hemp rules are expected to come up for a vote.
• October 26 and 28. The cannabis career expo, at My Brother’s Workshop on St. Thomas and the DC Canegata Center on St. Croix.
• Every Thursday. The Drought Monitor map updates. Whether St. John and St. Croix follow St. Thomas into D4 shows up there first.
• December. The next NIDIS status update for the territory.
• April 20, 2027. The emergency loan application deadline, still without a published answer on cannabis eligibility.

The grow facility guide treats water and power as the first cost line in a Virgin Islands operation rather than the last. At $450 per 5,000 gallons, that line is now a published number.